Dynamics and forecast of primary morbidity rates of mental disorders among internal affairs officers of Russian Federation: Retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE. To evaluate the dynamics and forecast the levels of primary morbidity of mental disorders among employees of internal affairs bodies (IAB) of the Russian Federation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS. There was the analysis of primary morbidity (PM) of mental disorders (MD) (V class of ICD-10 “Mental disorders and behavioral disorders”) of IAB officers with special ranks of police and internal service, presented in the database formed by reports for 16 years from 2008 to 2023, according to the data of statistical accounting forms in the form “7 PSI”. MD was calculated per 1,000 employees or in ppm (‰). The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast the trends of MD for the period from 2025 to 2027, taking into account external factors, such as the performance of operational and service tasks in the conditions of combat operations that began in 2022. An analysis of variance was used to determine the significant differences between the predicted parameters of MD, without and with the exogenous factor taken into account, and with its consideration.

RESULTS. The average annual level of primary morbidity of mental disorders amounted to 3.74 ‰, the share of the entire structure of MD - 0.7 %, PM of employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia in 19 classes of diseases according to ICD-10 was 545.67 ‰. The level of mental disorders among employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia in 2008 was 6.36 ‰, in 2023 - 3.01 ‰, i.e. a 2.1-fold decrease was recorded. The total projected level of PM by Publishing house “Academy of Natural Sciences” among employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs should increase when taking into account the exogenous factor from 4.32-4.46 to 5.34-5.42 ‰, and this change is statistically significant (F = 43.1; p = 0.002). The predicted increase in PM of substance-induced MD (F10-F19) would be from 0.01-0.02 to 0.04-0.05 ‰ (F = 40.5; p = 0.003). The prognosis of PM by neurotic, stress-related, and somatoform MD (F40-F48) shows a significant (F = 56.24; p = 0.001) increase when considering exogenous factor - from 3.88-3.95 to 4.81-4.92‰.

DISCUSSION. Execution of service and combat tasks in emergency conditions of professional activity significantly increases the risk of forming mental disorders among IAB officers. The greatest increase in morbidity in 2025-2027 is forecasted in F10-F19 (mental disorders associated with substance use) and F40-F48 (neurotic disorders) disease groups.

CONCLUSION. It is advisable to consider the possibility of improving psychoprophylactic measures aimed at increasing stress resistance and forming attitudes towards a healthy lifestyle among IAB officers. It is important to improve approaches to annual preventive examinations of personnel with early diagnosis of atypical and borderline forms of mental disorders in order to prevent their development and chronicization, which will contribute to the improvement of personal and professional reliability in emergency situations during the performance of operational and combat tasks in special conditions.

marine medicine, primary morbidity, mental disorders, officers of internal affairs bodies of the Russian Federation, morbidity rates, forecast

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