Structure and consequences of maritime terrorist acts: data for risk assessment and medical response planning

INTRODUCTION. Maritime terrorism poses a multi-level threat, affecting not only international security but also the healthcare system and the units responsible for dealing with the aftermath of terrorist acts. Despite the existence of isolated studies, there is no comprehensive scientific picture based on statistical data on the methods, means, and targets of maritime terrorist attacks.

OBJECTIVE. Identify structural features and dynamic patterns of maritime terrorist acts in terms of methods, means, and targets, as well as assess irreparable and sanitary losses, followed by a discussion of predictive models up to 2030.

MATERIALS AND METHODS. The study was conducted using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), which includes 209,707 terrorist acts (1970–2020). Using text analysis with keywords, 69,772 events potentially related to the marine environment were selected. Frequency analysis, normalization, dynamic series construction, and visualization methods were used for the analysis. The results were aggregated by the number of people killed and injured and classified by the method, means, and target of the attack.

RESULTS. The highest number of injuries (34.5%) and deaths (31.1%) are associated with attacks on private individuals. Explosions are the most common method (68.9% of those injured, 47.6% of those killed), with the use of explosives being the most common means. The key targets are military facilities, police, and government officials. The dynamics show a peak in activity in 2014–2016, followed by a decline.

DISCUSSION. The results obtained confirm the hypothesis about the targeted nature of maritime terrorism directed against infrastructure and politically significant objects. The methodological novelty lies in combining structural and dynamic analysis with the use of universal approaches to visualization and maintaining the accuracy of data representation.

CONCLUSION. The proposed approach not only allows identifying the characteristic features of maritime terrorist acts, but also provides a practical basis for planning preventive measures, medical response, and updating the regulatory framework in the field of maritime security.

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