Predicting risk of personality disorders among conscripts based on biopsychosocial markers: retrospective study

INTRODUCTION. Timely diagnosis of mental disorders in conscripts is essential for national security. An important task is to predict the risk of personality disorders (PD), which account for up to two-thirds of mental disorders in conscripts.

OBJECTIVE. Evaluate the efficacy of a model for predicting the risk of personality disorders in individuals of draft age based on biopsychosocial markers.

MATERIALS AND METHODS. A total of 239 conscripts were examined at the V. M. Bekhterev Center for Psychiatry and Mental Health in 2022–2024. The median age was 18.0 [18.0; 19.0] years. The experimental group (EG) consisted of 140 (58.6%) conscripts with a confirmed diagnosis of PD, and the comparison group (CG) consisted of 99 (41.4%) mentally healthy conscripts. Clinical (questionnaire, analysis of complaints and anamnestic data, clinical examination) and experimental psychological methods were used. The experimental psychological study (EPS) was conducted using a proprietary questionnaire to identify markers of mental disorders in conscripts. Based on the results of comparing the frequency of occurrence of biopsychosocial markers of mental disorders in the EG and CG, a predictive-analytical mathematical model was created to assess the risk of PD in conscripts.

RESULTS. The following markers of mental disorders were significantly more common (p ≤ 0.01) in the EG: lack of academic activity, frequent family quarrels, poor relationships with peers, bullying by peers, lack of friends in the past and present, quarrels at school, committing sudden rash acts, quick temper, ability to strike when offended, observation/treatment by a psychiatrist, signs of Internet addiction, bad mood, mood swings, anxiety, suicidal thoughts, negative attitude towards military service. Based on the identified markers, a predictive analytical mathematical model was constructed to assess the risk of PD in persons of draft age. Testing on experimental data with a cutoff threshold of 0.5001 showed that the accuracy of the prediction is 84.1%.

DISCUSSION. The biopsychosocial markers of PD included in the mathematical model for conscripts meet the criteria for PD and reflect persistent manifestations of social maladjustment. Among the variables specific to the conscript contingent that have the greatest influence on the outcome of the risk equation is the item “attitude toward military service”; the other markers correlate with the most common types of PD in conscripts (emotionally unstable, dependent, dissocial), as well as with data from the literature.

CONCLUSION. Thus, the identification of PD biopsychosocial markers allows to have the successful prediction of the likelihood of mental disorders from this group in individuals of draft age in 84.1% of cases. The information obtained can be used to improve the quality of PD diagnosis when examining individuals of draft age in a psychiatric hospital.

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