Maritime terrorism in figures: analyzing terrorist attacks, threats, and resistance prospects

INTRODUCTION. Contemporary terrorist activity encompasses a wide range of methods, targets and modes of attack, including attacks in the maritime environment. Such terrorist acts carry significant economic and social risks, affecting international trade routes, naval forces and port infrastructure. Despite active research on terrorism, a systematic analysis of maritime terrorist acts remains underdeveloped. The present study aims to quantitatively and qualitatively assess such terrorist attacks, identify their patterns, and forecast their dynamics until 2030.

OBJECTIVE. Determine key patterns of maritime terrorism, including analysis of methods, ways and objects of terrorist attacks, as well as assessment of the dynamics of terrorist activity. The main task is to forecast possible scenarios of threat development based on mathematical analysis of time series.

MATERIALS AND METHODS. The study uses Global Terrorism Database (GTD) data containing information on 209707 terrorist attacks for the period 1970-2022. A textual analysis method using relevant keywords was applied to select maritime terrorist attacks, which allowed the selection of 69772 terrorist attacks. The analysis was conducted using frequency analysis, time series statistical techniques including linear regression, and forecasting techniques.

RESULTS. Explosions (52.23%), armed attacks (21.26%) and attacks on infrastructure (9.97%) were found to be the main methods of committing maritime terrorist attacks. Explosives (55.53%), firearms (23.22%), and arson (10.55%) were most frequently used methods of perpetration. The highest proportion of attacks were directed against individuals and property (24.44%), military personnel (15.95%) and police officers (11.12%). The dynamic analysis showed a significant increase in terrorist activity from 2010 to 2014, reaching a peak in 2014 (6,885 attacks), followed by a decline, but the forecast values indicate a possible increase by 2030.

DISCUSSION. The results allow comparing them with previously published studies. In contrast to land-based terrorist acts, maritime terrorist attacks are characterized by a high proportion of attacks on naval forces, port infrastructure and merchant ships. The patterns identified support other researchers’ observations of the predominant use of explosives and firearms in maritime terrorism. However, the predictive models presented in this study are the first to quantify possible future changes in attack dynamics.

COCNLUSION. The study allowed to identify key features of maritime terrorist acts, analyze their structure, dynamics and predict future trends. The results obtained can be used to improve systems for preventing and responding to terrorist threats in the maritime environment.

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